Johan Santana throws at Mets Spring Training at Port St. Lucie. He is a SP who you have to conisider drafting in the top few rounds
By: David Rothman
Congratulations, you joined a fantasy baseball league. But now you have to try to win it.
The draft in you fantasy baseball league is probably the single most important event during the season. Although it is not always possible to guarantee victory in your league based on your draft, as there are many changes throughout the season, it is very possible to destroy your chances of winning on this day. Many people have poor drafts that have left them in the cellar of their leagues from day one of the season, with no hope of ever getting near the leaders.
There are a number of different strategies that can be employed in a fantasy draft. One of the strategies that is most talked about is the debate about when to draft starting pitchers.
Some people in general prefer to avoid starting pitchers in the early rounds of their draft. The thinking behind this strategy is that some of the high-rated pitchers tend to get hurt every year, and you don’t want to risk such a high pick when that can happen. Another reason people argue for this strategy is that their often tends to be pitchers who come out of nowhere and end up having good seasons, like Joe Saunders or Cliff Lee, last year, who will be available in the late rounds of the draft or even be on the waiver wire during the season.
A third reason people prefer to avoid starting pitchers early is partly based on a sense of peer pressure. The strategy of mainly avoiding pitchers early has become pretty main-stream in the last few years. Thus, some people who might consider going against this strategy end up not because they are afraid that in selecting a pitcher early, they will have to play catch-up in the offensive categories in the later rounds of the draft because their opponents have an extra high level hitter.
However, the strategy of draft starting pitchers in the early rounds is not unsound. Although it may force the drafter to focus more on offense in the middle rounds, it creates a definite area of advantage for the drafter. For example, you could draft CC Sabathia in the third round and Dan Haren in the fifth round as your top two starters. This gives you a clear advantage against a team whose top two starters are Justin Verlander and Chris Young. At the same time there is still an opportunity to search for good value in starting pitchers in the middle rounds, but instead of being forced to take as many starters as you can in the middle rounds, you can pick and choose and try to get the best value possible like John Danks and Derek Lowe in the 15th and 16th rounds.
A second issue that has to be considered into draft strategy is when to draft closers. The first closers are often drafted in the 5th to 6th round, while the lower tier closer linger into the late rounds of the draft.
One strategy to draft closers is to draft top closers in the earlier rounds (5-8). This strategy should allow you to get at least one of the elite closers, and prevent you from being shut-out of saves. This strategy is preferred by some because the closer position can often be very unstable, and a number of closers lose their jobs every year due to injury or ineffectiveness. By drafting one of the top closers, you are attempting to get a closer whose position is secure and will get you through the season while putting up great numbers. Examples of closers you would target using this strategy include John Papelbon of the Red Sox, Francisico Rodriguez of the Mets, and Joe Nathan of the Twins. After securing one or two of these top closers, they will seek to select an extra closer in the middle rounds
The other side to this issue is waiting and drafting closers late. This strategy is also based on the instability of the closer position from year to year. The idea behind this strategy is that since so many closer lose their jobs every year, you shouldn’t use your higher picks on them since it is too risky. People who wait won’t target closers in until the teen rounds at the earliest, and then will try to get 3 closers. During the season, these drafters will often keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire waiting for the new closers to appear, when people who had the closer role in spring training lose them. One example of a closer who appeared during the middle of last season is Jon Broxton of the LA Dodgers, who took over when Takashi Saito got hurt last year.
Another issue that has a major effect on draft strategy is position scarcity. Some positions in baseball have fewer players who put up good numbers. This year, those positions are catcher, 2nd base, 3rd base, and shortstop.
Some people prefer to take advantage of position scarcity. In order to do this, they will tend to use their early picks in the draft in order to get people from the scarce positions. By doing this, they believe that it gives them an advantage at that position, and allows them to pick from the deeper positions like outfield and 1st base, in the later rounds when there are still pretty good players available at those positions. There is merit to this argument, as the debate between who is better fantasy second baseman between Ian Kinsler (Texas) and Marc Ellis (Oakland) is quite one-sided in favor of Kinsler.
However, the other side of the argument is this. In the rush to fill scare positions, drafters sometime use a high pick a player with inferior numbers in comparison to other players that are still available. One example of this is the debate of who should be drafted higher between Phillies shortstop, Jimmy Rollins, and Rangers Outfielder, Josh Hamilton. According to ADP (Average Draft Position) data on MockDraftCentral.com, on average Rollins is the 9th player selected in fantasy drafts while Hamilton is the 11th player selected.
However, if you look back at last year’s statistics, does this trend make sense? Last year, Hamilton had a .304 batting average, hit 32 home runs, had 130 RBI’s (runs batted in), scored 98 runs, and stole 9 bases. Rollins on the other hand, had a .277 average, 11 home runs, 59 RBI’s, scored 76 runs, and stole 47 bases. So in four the five categories, which are the general offensive scoring categories in fantasy baseball, Hamilton has a definite edge. Yet he is still being drafted two spots behind Rollins on average because Rollins is the third and final shortstop who is considered to be in the “top tier.”
One thing you want to avoid in your drafts is becoming a “homer”. A homer is someone who completely overvalues all of the players from their favorite team and ends drafting most of them, generally way before the player’s value indicates that they should be drafted.
“I was in a draft with a guy, actually probably a kid, who drafted pretty much the entire Yankees roster,” said Justin LaLiberte, 22, a senior who is majoring in the classics at UAlbany. “He wasn’t paying any attention to value, the only thing that seemed to matter to him was that they were Yankees. It worked out well for me though, because there was one less person who would be drafting the players that I wanted, because you’ll never see draft a Yankee anyway,” added the Winchester, Mass, resident.
Like in other things, practicing can be a help in preparing for your fantasy baseball draft. Websites like mockdraftcentral.com, espn.com, and yahoo.com all give you the chance to participate in mock drafts for free. Participating in mock drafts gives you another edge as well. It allows you to see how various players are being valued by other people. http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/draft_grid.jsp?id=99270 Here is a recent mock draft completed on March 1, 2009. Team 10 (my team sux), appeared to embrace the strategies of position scarcity, drafting Rollins and Kinsler with his top 2 picks, as well as not drafting ptiching until later rounds. The first pitcher he selected was Justin Verlander in the 14th round.
Like in all fantasy sports, your fantasy baseball draft is the biggest single day in the fantasy season. On draft day, you could put your team on the path to victory, or send it down to be a cellar dweller, whose way out of it in May. Good Luck!
UAlbany Experience 